The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights Finale
Las Vegas, USA
5 Dec 2009
Light Heavyweight
VS
21%
Hamill
79%
Jones
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jones
Jones is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 52 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jones has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Striking split: Hamill throws more volume but Jones connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Hamill's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hamill
Jones
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
76"
Reach
+84"
49
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hamill
Jones
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
70.9
51.9
Performance Avg
74.6
42
Quality of Victory
61
63
Momentum Score
100
Hamill
Jones
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.2
47%
Strike Accuracy
58%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.6
5 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
33
0
Body
7
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
5Distance9
0Clinch2
0Ground33
Hamill
Jones
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.0
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.7
0
Submission wins
6
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hamill
Jones
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/20 fights
Chin rating based on
24/29 fights
Hamill
Jones
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
100
Current form
19-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Hamill
Jones
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
55%
5
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
6
5
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hamill
Jones
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.6
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
HamillJones
Strike Zones
Hamill
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedJones
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hamill targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Jones absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Jones targets the head (75% of attacks) — Hamill absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hamill
RND
Jones
0/0R00/0
Hamill · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Jones · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Hamill · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Thiago SilvaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
W · Dec · R3
Roger HollettRating 4.5Decision
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · 2012-09
L · KO · R2
Alexander GustafssonRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Quinton JacksonRating 5.5Decision
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill · 2011-05
W · Dec · R3
Tito OrtizRating 4.5Decision
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10
Jones · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Sub · R1
Ciryl GaneRating 6.8Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
W · Dec · R5
Dominick ReyesRating 5.5Decision
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · 2020-02
W · Dec · R5
Thiago SantosRating 4.5Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · Dec · R5
Anthony SmithRating 5.7Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03