UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Seattle, USA
27 Jul 2013
Welterweight
VS
54%
MacDonald
46%
Ellenberger
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RM
Rory MacDonald
"Red King"
19 – 4
6'0"76" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 18
JE
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31 – 15
Well-Rounded4-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: MacDonald

This is a genuine toss-up — MacDonald at 54% vs Ellenberger at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Ellenberger throws more volume but MacDonald connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

MacDonald's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ellenberger has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

MacDonald
Ellenberger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
71"
36+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
MacDonald
Ellenberger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
15.7
51.3
Performance Avg
45.7
39
Quality of Victory
45
61
Momentum Score
56
MacDonald
Ellenberger
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
45%
Strike Accuracy
42%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
9
5
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
18Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground1
MacDonald
Ellenberger
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
MacDonald
Ellenberger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
0
KO risk
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
7
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/23 fights
Chin rating based on
21/46 fights
MacDonald
Ellenberger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
56
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
MacDonald
Ellenberger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
60%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

MacDonald
Ellenberger
Striking4.7 / 6.0Volume5.8 / 3.4Grappling2.2 / 1.5Wrestling1.6 / 1.1Submission1.1 / 1.0Pressure5.2 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
MacDonald
Strike Zones
Ellenberger
MacDonald
Attacking
13HEAD5BODY0LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD1BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Ellenberger
Attacking
9HEAD1BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD5BODY0LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯MacDonald targets the head (72% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 72% of strikes there
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (90% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 90% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

MacDonald
RND
Ellenberger
0/0R00/0

MacDonald · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W4.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.8L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.3L6.1L2010-012012-042014-022016-06
WinLossTrend

Ellenberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.5L4.3L1.8L5.2W2.1L5.5L5.4W1.5L2.8L1.5L1.9L2009-092012-022014-112017-042018-08
WinLossTrend

MacDonald · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · KO · R5
Robbie LawlerRating 4.3
KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · KO · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Tyron WoodleyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02

Ellenberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07

News & Media

Rory MacDonald · Jake Ellenberger
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