UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
Las Vegas, USA
5 Mar 2016
Lightweight
VS
23%
Sanchez
77%
Miller
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DS
Diego Sanchez
"Nightmare"
31 – 13
5'10"72" reachSouthpaw44 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 13
Jim
Jim Miller
"A-10"
39 – 19
Well-Rounded42 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'8"
CFR 44

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Miller

Miller is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Sanchez throws more volume but Miller connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Sanchez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Miller has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Sanchez
Miller
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
72"+
Reach
71"
44
Age
+42
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Sanchez
Miller
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.7
43.5
46.0
Performance Avg
51.5
37
Quality of Victory
45
20
Momentum Score
28
Sanchez
Miller
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.0
39%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
6 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
13
5
Body
3
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
28Distance20
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Sanchez
Miller
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.0
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.7
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sanchez
Miller
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/44 fights
Chin rating based on
47/58 fights
Sanchez
Miller
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
28
L · Dec · R3
W · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Sanchez
Miller
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
32%
71%
6
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
14
13
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sanchez
Miller
Striking4.3 / 3.4Volume6.2 / 3.5Grappling1.5 / 4.7Wrestling1.1 / 3.3Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure4.0 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.7
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Sanchez
Strike Zones
Miller
Sanchez
Attacking
22HEAD5BODY1LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD3BODY4LEGS20 absorbed
Miller
Attacking
13HEAD3BODY4LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD5BODY1LEGS28 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sanchez targets the head (79% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Miller targets the head (65% of attacks) — Sanchez absorbs 65% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sanchez
RND
Miller
0/0R00/0

Sanchez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W5.2W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.0W5.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L4.9W1.5L4.5W1.5L1.9L4.5W5.8W6.3L5.1W6.5L2005-042008-032012-022016-112020-09
WinLossTrend

Miller · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W4.5W6.4W5.5W5.5L5.0W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.0W2.1L6.5L4.5W3.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W6.8L5.5L5.5L2.4L5.0W2.9L5.0W5.5W5.5L5.2W5.7L6.2L5.2W5.9W5.2W6.4L5.0W5.7W6.2L5.3W6.3L5.4W2008-102012-052017-022021-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Sanchez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
W · R3
Michel PereiraRating 5.1
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · KO · R2
Mickey GallRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Craig WhiteRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09

Miller · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Jared GordonRating 5.4
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Chase HooperRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Damon JacksonRating 5.3
Submission
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · Sub · R3
Gabriel BenitezRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01

News & Media

Diego Sanchez · Jim Miller
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