★ Championship Bout · Flyweight
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4 May 2024
Flyweight
VS
57%
Pantoja
43%
Erceg
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pantoja
This is a genuine toss-up — Pantoja at 57% vs Erceg at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pantoja has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Erceg has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Pantoja
Erceg
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'8"
67"
Reach
+68"
36
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pantoja
Erceg
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.7
46.4
60.2
Performance Avg
43.6
49
Quality of Victory
31
65
Momentum Score
60
Pantoja
Erceg
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.3
49%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
12
4
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance13
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Pantoja
Erceg
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
3.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pantoja
Erceg
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
74
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/36 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Pantoja
Erceg
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
60
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Pantoja
Erceg
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
20%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pantoja
Erceg
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
4.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
3.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
PantojaErceg
Strike Zones
Pantoja
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedErceg
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pantoja targets the head (60% of attacks) — Erceg absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Erceg targets the head (92% of attacks) — Pantoja absorbs 92% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pantoja
RND
Erceg
0/0R00/0
Pantoja · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Erceg · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Pantoja · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Joshua VanRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R3
Kai Kara-FranceRating 6.1Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Sub · R2
Kai AsakuraRating 5.1Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R5
Steve ErcegRating 5.1Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R5
Brandon RoyvalRating 5.3Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Erceg · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Ode OsbourneRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Kai Kara-FranceRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Alexandre PantojaRating 6.8Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05