UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
Las Vegas, USA
8 May 2021
Heavyweight
VS
27%
Greene
73%
Lima
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lima
Lima is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lima has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Greene's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lima has a chin rating of 16 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Greene
Lima
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'7"+
Height
6'1"
80"+
Reach
75"
39+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Greene
Lima
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.5
47.3
47.6
Performance Avg
53.8
46
Quality of Victory
49
53
Momentum Score
59
Greene
Lima
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.6
45%
Strike Accuracy
60%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Greene
Lima
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Greene
Lima
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
16
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/16 fights
Chin rating based on
18/32 fights
Greene
Lima
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Greene
Lima
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
73%
1
KO / TKO Wins
6
2
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Greene
Lima
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
GreeneLima
Strike Zones
Greene
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedLima
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Greene targets the body (100% of attacks) — Lima absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Greene
RND
Lima
0/0R00/0
Greene · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Lima · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Greene · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
L · KO · R2
Greg HardyRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · 2020-10
W · Sub · R3
Gian VillanteRating 5.5Submission
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L · Sub · R2
Aleksei OleinikRating 2.8Submission
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
Lima · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Junior TafaRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
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W · Sub · R1
Andrei ArlovskiRating 5.7Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Blagoy IvanovRating 5.5Decision
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