UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till
Las Vegas, USA
4 Sept 2021
Catch Weight
VS
44%
Erosa
56%
Jourdain
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:56
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jourdain
This is a genuine toss-up — Erosa at 44% vs Jourdain at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Erosa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Erosa's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jourdain has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Erosa
Jourdain
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'9"
74"+
Reach
69"
36
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Erosa
Jourdain
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.6
50.4
46.2
Performance Avg
48.6
44
Quality of Victory
44
26
Momentum Score
51
Erosa
Jourdain
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
2.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
9
5
Body
4
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance8
8Clinch6
0Ground0
Erosa
Jourdain
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.4
/ 10
4.4
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
4.4
Submission Style (/10)
4.4
4
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Erosa
Jourdain
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
56
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
7
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/45 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Erosa
Jourdain
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
51
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Erosa
Jourdain
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
4
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Erosa
Jourdain
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
4.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.4
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
ErosaJourdain
Strike Zones
Erosa
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedJourdain
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Erosa targets the head (65% of attacks) — Jourdain absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Jourdain targets the head (64% of attacks) — Erosa absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Erosa
RND
Jourdain
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Erosa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Jourdain · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Erosa · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Lerryan DouglasRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Melquizael CostaRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Darren ElkinsRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Christian RodriguezRating 5.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Sub · R1
Ricardo RamosRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
Jourdain · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Kyler PhillipsRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Davey GrantRating 5.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
W · Sub · R2
Victor HenryRating 6.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Jean SilvaRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01