METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
Denver, USA
24 Sept 2011
Lightweight
VS
80%
Ferguson
20%
Riley
Win Probability
★ Official Result
Tony FergusonwinsR1 · 5:00
def. Aaron Riley · UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferguson
→
Actual result
Ferguson wins
Pre-fight analysis
Ferguson is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ferguson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Riley has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
FergusonRiley
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ferguson
Riley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
76"+
Reach
69"
42+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ferguson
Riley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
11.4
54.2
Performance Avg
28.3
49
Quality of Victory
25
52
Momentum Score
45
Ferguson
Riley
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
0.7
/ 10
6.1
Style: Pressure
1.0
3.4
Style: Volume
8.7
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
3
6
Body
4
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
29Distance11
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Ferguson
Riley
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
6
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ferguson
Riley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
9/44 fights
Ferguson
Riley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
45
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
Ferguson
Riley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Riley
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
FergusonRiley
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedRiley
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (71% of attacks) — Riley absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Riley targets the body (36% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 36% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Riley
0/0R00/0
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettDecision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenSubmission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerKO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Riley · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Justin SalasDecision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · R1
Tony FergusonUFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Joe BrammerDecision
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
L · R2
Ross PearsonUFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
W · Dec · R3
Shane NelsonDecision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08