UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
Denver, USA
24 Sept 2011
Lightweight
VS
80%
Ferguson
20%
Riley
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ferguson
Ferguson is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ferguson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Ferguson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Riley has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ferguson
Riley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
76"+
Reach
69"
42+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ferguson
Riley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
11.4
54.2
Performance Avg
28.3
49
Quality of Victory
25
52
Momentum Score
45
Ferguson
Riley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.3
47%
Strike Accuracy
32%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
3
6
Body
4
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
29Distance11
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Ferguson
Riley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferguson
Riley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
9/44 fights
Ferguson
Riley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
45
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
Ferguson
Riley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Riley
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
FergusonRiley
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedRiley
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (71% of attacks) — Riley absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Riley targets the body (36% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 36% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Riley
0/0R00/0
Ferguson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Riley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Riley · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Justin SalasRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · R1
Tony FergusonRating 4.5UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Joe BrammerRating 4.5Decision
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
L · R2
Ross PearsonRating 4.8UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
W · Dec · R3
Shane NelsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08