UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Jacksonville, USA
9 May 2020
Welterweight
VS
57%
Luque
43%
Price
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Luque
This is a genuine toss-up — Luque at 57% vs Price at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Price throws more volume but Luque connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Luque's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Price has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Luque
Price
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
75"
Reach
+76"
34+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Luque
Price
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.9
48.4
57.2
Performance Avg
46.0
50
Quality of Victory
49
100
Momentum Score
65
Luque
Price
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.6
53%
Strike Accuracy
46%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
7 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
34
Head
33
0
Body
4
5
Leg
14
RangeRange
36Distance48
0Clinch0
3Ground3
Luque
Price
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Luque
Price
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/36 fights
Chin rating based on
21/27 fights
Luque
Price
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
65
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Luque
Price
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
82%
75%
7
KO / TKO Wins
4
7
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Luque
Price
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
4.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
LuquePrice
Strike Zones
Luque
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
51 absorbedPrice
Attacking
51 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Luque targets the head (87% of attacks) — Price absorbs 87% of strikes there
🎯Price targets the head (65% of attacks) — Luque absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Luque
RND
Price
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Luque · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Price · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Luque · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.3Submission
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