UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield
Las Vegas, USA
18 Feb 2023
Light Heavyweight
VS
53%
Wright
47%
Pauga
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JW
CFR 25
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Wright
This is a genuine toss-up — Wright at 53% vs Pauga at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Wright has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Striking split: Wright throws more volume but Pauga connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Wright's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pauga has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Wright
Pauga
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
77"+
Reach
76"
34+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Wright
Pauga
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.0
22.5
38.4
Performance Avg
25.0
45
Quality of Victory
25
13
Momentum Score
22
Wright
Pauga
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.6
60%
Strike Accuracy
61%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
13
7
Body
7
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
14Distance17
3Clinch5
0Ground0
Wright
Pauga
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Wright
Pauga
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/17 fights
Chin rating based on
4/10 fights
Wright
Pauga
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
13
22
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Wright
Pauga
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Wright
Pauga
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
0.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
WrightPauga
Strike Zones
Wright
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedPauga
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Wright targets the head (53% of attacks) — Pauga absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Pauga targets the head (59% of attacks) — Wright absorbs 59% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Wright
RND
Pauga
0/0R00/0
Wright · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Pauga · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Wright · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Zac PaugaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02
L · KO · R2
Dusko TodorovicRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
L · Sub · R1
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
L · KO · R1
Bruno SilvaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · KO · R1
Jamie PickettRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
Pauga · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Bogdan GuskovRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Modestas BukauskasRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
W · Dec · R3
Jordan WrightRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02
L · KO · R2
Mohammed UsmanRating 3.7KO/TKO
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