UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
Newark, USA
6 May 2023
Lightweight
VS
61%
Dober
39%
Frevola
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:08
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dober
Dober holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Frevola has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Dober throws more volume but Frevola connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Dober's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Frevola has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dober
Frevola
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+71"
37
Age
+35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Dober
Frevola
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.9
38.6
53.2
Performance Avg
45.8
50
Quality of Victory
46
100
Momentum Score
20
Dober
Frevola
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.9
43%
Strike Accuracy
46%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.9
11 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
26
8
Body
6
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
19Distance22
1Clinch1
0Ground12
Dober
Frevola
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dober
Frevola
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
8
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/44 fights
Chin rating based on
12/17 fights
Dober
Frevola
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
20
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Dober
Frevola
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
60%
11
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dober
Frevola
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.9
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
DoberFrevola
Strike Zones
Dober
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedFrevola
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dober targets the head (60% of attacks) — Frevola absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Frevola targets the head (74% of attacks) — Dober absorbs 74% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dober
RND
Frevola
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Dober · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Frevola · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Dober · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · KO · R3
Kyle PrepolecRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · R3
Jean SilvaRating 7.1UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Renato MoicanoRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02
Frevola · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kyle NelsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R3
Fares ZiamRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · KO · R1
Benoit Saint DenisRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · KO · R1
Ottman AzaitarRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11