Drew Dober vs Matt Frevola — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo

Newark, USA

6 May 2023

Lightweight

61%

Dober

39%

Frevola

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 1 · 4:08

Drew Dober

29 – 15

5'8"70" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight win streakKnockout Artist

CFR 60

Matt Frevola

"The SteamRolla"

11 – 6

Striker3-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"

CFR 39

★ Official Result

Matt FrevolawinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:08

def. Drew Dober · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Dober

→

Actual result

Frevola wins

KO/TKO · R1

Pre-fight analysis

Dober holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Frevola has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Dober's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Frevola has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

DoberFrevola

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Dober

Frevola

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'8"

Height

+5'9"

70"

Reach

+71"

Age

+36

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Dober

Frevola

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

59.9

38.6

53.2

Performance Avg

45.8

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Dober

Frevola

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

8.5

/ 10

6.9

/ 10

7.3

Style: Pressure

5.6

2.8

Style: Volume

4.1

11 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

3 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

19Distance22

1Clinch1

0Ground12

Dober

Frevola

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.0

/ 10

1.0

/ 10

0.7

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.7

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Dober

Frevola

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

2 consec. KOs

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.5 stoppage

2 fights ago

Last KO loss

1 fight ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

27/44 fights

Chin rating based on

12/17 fights

Dober

Frevola

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

2-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

3-fight 📉 slide

W · KO · R2

W · KO · R3

L · KO · R1

L · R3

L · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R3

L · KO · R1

W · KO · R1

Dober

Frevola

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

80%

60%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dober

Frevola

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

8.5

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

6.9

1.0

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.0

0.7

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.7

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

7.3

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.6

2.8

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.1

Dober

Strike Zones

Frevola

Dober

Attacking

20 landed

Absorbing

35 absorbed

Frevola

Attacking

35 landed

Absorbing

20 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Dober targets the head (60% of attacks) — Frevola absorbs 60% of strikes there

🎯Frevola targets the head (74% of attacks) — Dober absorbs 74% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dober

RND

Frevola

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Dober · Last 5

W · KO · R2

Michael Johnson

KO/TKO

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03

W · KO · R3

Kyle Prepolec

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10

L · KO · R1

Manuel Torres

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

L · R3

Jean Silva

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07

L · Dec · R3

Renato Moicano

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02

Frevola · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Kyle Nelson

Decision

UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10

L · KO · R3

Fares Ziam

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09

L · KO · R1

Benoit Saint Denis

KO/TKO

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

W · KO · R1

Drew Dober

KO/TKO

UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

W · KO · R1

Ottman Azaitar

KO/TKO

UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11

News & Media

Drew Dober · Matt Frevola

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