★ Championship Bout · Welterweight
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Welterweight
VS
48%
Edwards
52%
Covington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Leon
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
22 – 6
6'2"74" reachSouthpaw34 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 57
Colby
Colby Covington
"Chaos"
17 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Covington

This is a genuine toss-up — Edwards at 48% vs Covington at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Covington throws more volume but Edwards connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Covington has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Edwards
Covington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
72"
34+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Edwards
Covington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
61.2
51.1
Performance Avg
53.2
36
Quality of Victory
42
95
Momentum Score
100
Edwards
Covington
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.8
56%
Strike Accuracy
38%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Edwards
Covington
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Edwards
Covington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
60
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
17/22 fights
Edwards
Covington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Edwards
Covington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
42%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
2
10
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Edwards
Covington
Striking3.6 / 3.9Volume7.2 / 6.1Grappling2.3 / 2.7Wrestling1.6 / 1.9Submission0.7 / 1.7Pressure4.2 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
Edwards
Strike Zones
Covington
Edwards
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Covington
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the head (100% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Covington targets the body (100% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Edwards
RND
Covington
0/0R00/0

Edwards · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L5.0W4.5W6.6L4.5W5.5W6.0W4.9W5.5W4.5W5.6W4.7W4.5W6.6W5.6W5.8W6.6L4.5L5.0L2014-112016-102019-032023-122025-11
WinLossTrend

Covington · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.0W5.5W4.5W1.7L5.5W6.1W4.9W4.5W4.5W4.7W4.8W5.1L5.5W6.6L4.5W6.6L5.9L2014-082016-082019-082023-122024-12
WinLossTrend

Edwards · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Carlos PratesRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Sub · R4
Sean BradyRating 4.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

Covington · Last 5

L · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.9
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron WoodleyRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09

News & Media

Leon Edwards · Colby Covington
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