Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

★ Championship Bout · Welterweight

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington

Las Vegas, USA

16 Dec 2023

Welterweight

51%

Edwards

49%

Covington

Win Probability

Decision

Round 5 · 5:00

Leon Edwards

"Rocky"

22 – 6

6'2"74" reachSouthpaw35 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 57

Colby Covington

"Chaos"

17 – 5

Well-Rounded2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"

CFR 55

★ Official Result

Leon EdwardswinsDecisionR5 · 5:00

def. Colby Covington · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Edwards

→

Actual result

Edwards wins

Decision · R5

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Edwards at 51% vs Covington at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Risk flags

Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Covington has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

EdwardsCovington

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Edwards

Covington

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'2"+

Height

5'11"

74"+

Reach

72"

35+

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Edwards

Covington

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

57.4

55.0

51.1

Performance Avg

53.2

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

100

Edwards

Covington

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.6

/ 10

3.9

/ 10

4.2

Style: Pressure

5.0

7.2

Style: Volume

6.1

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

3 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

2Distance1

0Clinch0

1Ground0

Edwards

Covington

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.3

/ 10

2.7

/ 10

1.6

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.9

0.7

Submission Style (/10)

1.7

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Edwards

Covington

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R5.0 stoppage

Most recent fight

Last KO loss

5 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

20/28 fights

Chin rating based on

17/22 fights

Edwards

Covington

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

3-fight 📉 slide

Current form

2-fight 📉 slide

L · KO · R2

L · Sub · R4

L · Dec · R5

W · Dec · R5

Last 5

L · R3

L · Dec · R5

W · Dec · R5

L · Dec · R5

W · KO · R5

Edwards

Covington

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

29%

42%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Edwards

Covington

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.6

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.9

2.3

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.7

1.6

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.9

0.7

Submission

Submission attack frequency

1.7

4.2

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.0

7.2

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

6.1

Edwards

Strike Zones

Covington

Edwards

Attacking

3 landed

Absorbing

1 absorbed

Covington

Attacking

1 landed

Absorbing

3 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Edwards targets the head (100% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 100% of strikes there

🎯Covington targets the body (100% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Edwards

RND

Covington

0/0R00/0

Edwards · Last 5

L · KO · R2

Carlos Prates

KO/TKO

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11

L · Sub · R4

Sean Brady

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03

L · Dec · R5

Belal Muhammad

Decision

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07

W · Dec · R5

Colby Covington

Decision

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

W · Dec · R5

Kamaru Usman

Decision

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

Covington · Last 5

L · R3

Joaquin Buckley

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12

L · Dec · R5

Leon Edwards

Decision

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

W · Dec · R5

Jorge Masvidal

Decision

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03

L · Dec · R5

Kamaru Usman

Decision

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11

W · KO · R5

Tyron Woodley

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09

News & Media

Leon Edwards · Colby Covington

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