UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
25 Oct 2025
Heavyweight
VS
45%
Abdelwahab
55%
Barnett
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Barnett
This is a genuine toss-up — Abdelwahab at 45% vs Barnett at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Barnett has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.
Striking split: Barnett throws more volume but Abdelwahab connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Barnett has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Abdelwahab
Barnett
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
+75"
33+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Abdelwahab
Barnett
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.3
55.9
41.7
Performance Avg
46.3
25
Quality of Victory
55
60
Momentum Score
65
Abdelwahab
Barnett
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.7
56%
Strike Accuracy
49%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
3
3
Body
0
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance4
3Clinch0
23Ground1
Abdelwahab
Barnett
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Abdelwahab
Barnett
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
62
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/8 fights
Chin rating based on
6/33 fights
Abdelwahab
Barnett
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
65
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Abdelwahab
Barnett
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Abdelwahab
Barnett
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
9.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
AbdelwahabBarnett
Strike Zones
Abdelwahab
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedBarnett
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Abdelwahab targets the head (84% of attacks) — Barnett absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Barnett targets the head (60% of attacks) — Abdelwahab absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Abdelwahab
RND
Barnett
0/0R00/0
Abdelwahab · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Barnett · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Abdelwahab · Last 4
W · Dec · R3
Chris BarnettRating 5.5Decision
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