UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
Las Vegas, USA
18 Sept 2021
Middleweight
VS
95%
Buckley
5%
Arroyo
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:26
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Buckley
Buckley is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 55 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Buckley has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 41 points.
Striking split: Buckley throws more volume but Arroyo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Buckley's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Buckley
Arroyo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'3"
76"+
Reach
73"
32+
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Buckley
Arroyo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.0
3.3
50.6
Performance Avg
0.0
41
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Buckley
Arroyo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.5
41%
Strike Accuracy
56%
6.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
2
4
Body
3
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance5
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Buckley
Arroyo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
0.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Buckley
Arroyo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/29 fights
Chin rating based on
3/14 fights
Buckley
Arroyo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Buckley
Arroyo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
0%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Buckley
Arroyo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
BuckleyArroyo
Strike Zones
Buckley
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedArroyo
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Buckley targets the head (57% of attacks) — Arroyo absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Arroyo targets the body (60% of attacks) — Buckley absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Buckley
RND
Arroyo
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Buckley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Arroyo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Buckley · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean BradyRating 6.6Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 5.6UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Nursulton RuziboevRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
Arroyo · Last 3
L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Deron WinnRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
L · Dec · R3
Andre MunizRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11