UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
Sao Paulo, Brazil
28 Oct 2017
Middleweight
VS
68%
Brunson
32%
Machida
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:30
DB
Derek Brunson
"The One"
23 – 9
6'1"77" reachSouthpaw42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 40
LM
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
24 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak47 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'1"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Brunson

Brunson holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Machida has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Brunson throws more volume but Machida connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Brunson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Machida has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Brunson
Machida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
77"+
Reach
74"
42+
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Brunson
Machida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.2
18.7
54.7
Performance Avg
53.8
47
Quality of Victory
45
72
Momentum Score
78
Brunson
Machida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.0
44%
Strike Accuracy
54%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
7 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
2
0
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance3
0Clinch0
5Ground0
Brunson
Machida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brunson
Machida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
4
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
6
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/32 fights
Chin rating based on
24/32 fights
Brunson
Machida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
78
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Brunson
Machida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
50%
7
KO / TKO Wins
7
2
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Brunson
Machida
Striking6.3 / 5.7Volume4.2 / 5.3Grappling2.0 / 1.7Wrestling1.4 / 1.2Submission1.4 / 0.6Pressure6.5 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.6
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
Brunson
Strike Zones
Machida
Brunson
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY2LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Machida
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY2LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Brunson targets the head (80% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Machida targets the head (67% of attacks) — Brunson absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Brunson
RND
Machida
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Brunson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.0W4.0L4.5W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.0W2.4L5.5L5.0W5.0W1.5L2.9L4.5W4.5W6.9W5.1W5.2W3.7L4.7L2012-122016-022018-012021-092023-03
WinLossTrend

Machida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W3.9L5.2W4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W6.3L5.0W2.1L2.8L1.8L5.3W5.2W2007-022009-052012-082014-122018-05
WinLossTrend

Brunson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Dricus Du PlessisRating 4.7
KO/TKO
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
L · KO · R2
Jared CannonierRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
W · Sub · R3
Darren TillRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · 2021-09
W · Dec · R5
Kevin HollandRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
W · KO · R3
Edmen ShahbazyanRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08

Machida · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04

News & Media

Derek Brunson · Lyoto Machida
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