METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
Sao Paulo, Brazil
28 Oct 2017
Middleweight
VS
68%
Brunson
32%
Machida
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:30
★ Official Result
Derek BrunsonwinsKO/TKOR1 · 2:30
def. Lyoto Machida · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Brunson
→
Actual result
Brunson wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Brunson holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Machida has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Brunson throws more volume but Machida connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Brunson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Machida has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BrunsonMachida
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Brunson
Machida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
77"+
Reach
74"
42+
Age
48
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Brunson
Machida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.2
18.7
54.7
Performance Avg
53.8
47
Quality of Victory
45
72
Momentum Score
78
Brunson
Machida
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
1.0
44%
Strike Accuracy
54%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
7 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
2
0
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance3
0Clinch0
5Ground0
Brunson
Machida
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brunson
Machida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
4
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
6
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/32 fights
Chin rating based on
24/32 fights
Brunson
Machida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
78
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Brunson
Machida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
50%
7
KO / TKO Wins
7
2
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brunson
Machida
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.6
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
BrunsonMachida
Strike Zones
Brunson
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedMachida
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brunson targets the head (80% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Machida targets the head (67% of attacks) — Brunson absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brunson
RND
Machida
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Brunson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Machida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Brunson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Dricus Du PlessisRating 4.7KO/TKO
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
L · KO · R2
Jared CannonierRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
W · Sub · R3
Darren TillRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · 2021-09
W · Dec · R5
Kevin HollandRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
W · KO · R3
Edmen ShahbazyanRating 6.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08
Machida · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04