UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa
London, United Kingdom
8 Mar 2014
Middleweight
VS
91%
Barnatt
9%
Nilsson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:24
LB
Luke Barnatt
"The Bigslow"
13 – 4
6'6"77" reachOrthodox38 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 21
MN
Mats Nilsson
11 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox6'1"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Barnatt

Barnatt is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Barnatt has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.

Nilsson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Barnatt
Nilsson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'6"+
Height
6'1"
77"
Reach
38+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barnatt
Nilsson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
2.1
46.9
Performance Avg
0.0
45
Quality of Victory
0
82
Momentum Score
0
Barnatt
Nilsson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.9
38%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
32
Head
15
10
Body
4
3
Leg
6
RangeRange
41Distance25
4Clinch0
0Ground0
Barnatt
Nilsson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Barnatt
Nilsson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/17 fights
Chin rating based on
2/15 fights
Barnatt
Nilsson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
82
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Barnatt
Nilsson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Barnatt
Nilsson
Striking4.3 / 0.0Volume3.7 / 0.0Grappling3.5 / 0.0Wrestling2.4 / 0.0Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure6.2 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Barnatt
Strike Zones
Nilsson
Barnatt
Attacking
32HEAD10BODY3LEGS45 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD4BODY6LEGS25 absorbed
Nilsson
Attacking
15HEAD4BODY6LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
32HEAD10BODY3LEGS45 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Barnatt targets the head (71% of attacks) — Nilsson absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Nilsson targets the head (60% of attacks) — Barnatt absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Barnatt
RND
Nilsson
0/0R00/0

Barnatt · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W5.2W5.0W6.6L5.5L5.5L2013-042013-102014-032014-052014-112015-05
WinLossTrend

Nilsson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0101.5L5.5L2014-032015-01
WinLossTrend

Barnatt · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mark MunozRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber · 2015-05
L · Dec · R3
Roger NarvaezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · 2014-11
L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05
W · KO · R1
Mats NilssonRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · 2014-03
W · Sub · R2
Andrew CraigRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10

Nilsson · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · KO · R1
Luke BarnattRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · 2014-03

News & Media

Luke Barnatt · Mats Nilsson
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