METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa
London, United Kingdom
8 Mar 2014
Middleweight
VS
91%
Barnatt
9%
Nilsson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:24
★ Official Result
Luke BarnattwinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:24
def. Mats Nilsson · UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Barnatt
→
Actual result
Barnatt wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Barnatt is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Barnatt has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.
Nilsson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BarnattNilsson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Barnatt
Nilsson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'6"+
Height
6'1"
77"
Reach
38+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barnatt
Nilsson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
2.1
46.9
Performance Avg
0.0
45
Quality of Victory
0
82
Momentum Score
0
Barnatt
Nilsson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
1.9
38%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
32
Head
15
10
Body
4
3
Leg
6
RangeRange
41Distance25
4Clinch0
0Ground0
Barnatt
Nilsson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Barnatt
Nilsson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/17 fights
Chin rating based on
2/15 fights
Barnatt
Nilsson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
82
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Barnatt
Nilsson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barnatt
Nilsson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
BarnattNilsson
Strike Zones
Barnatt
Attacking
45 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedNilsson
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
45 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barnatt targets the head (71% of attacks) — Nilsson absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Nilsson targets the head (60% of attacks) — Barnatt absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barnatt
RND
Nilsson
0/0R00/0
Barnatt · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Nilsson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Barnatt · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mark MunozRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber · 2015-05
L · Dec · R3
Roger NarvaezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · 2014-11
L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05
W · KO · R1
Mats NilssonRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · 2014-03
W · Sub · R2
Andrew CraigRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
Nilsson · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · KO · R1
Luke BarnattRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · 2014-03