UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2022
Lightweight
VS
43%
Frevola
57%
Azaitar
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:30
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Azaitar
This is a genuine toss-up — Frevola at 43% vs Azaitar at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Azaitar has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Azaitar has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Frevola's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Azaitar has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Frevola
Azaitar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
71"
Reach
71"
35+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Frevola
Azaitar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.6
50.8
45.8
Performance Avg
52.0
46
Quality of Victory
60
20
Momentum Score
33
Frevola
Azaitar
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
4.2
46%
Strike Accuracy
49%
6.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
6
1
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance10
2Clinch0
2Ground0
Frevola
Azaitar
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Frevola
Azaitar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
34
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/17 fights
Chin rating based on
5/16 fights
Frevola
Azaitar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
33
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Frevola
Azaitar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Frevola
Azaitar
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
FrevolaAzaitar
Strike Zones
Frevola
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedAzaitar
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Frevola targets the head (91% of attacks) — Azaitar absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Azaitar targets the head (60% of attacks) — Frevola absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Frevola
RND
Azaitar
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Frevola · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Azaitar · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Frevola · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kyle NelsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R3
Fares ZiamRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · KO · R1
Benoit Saint DenisRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · KO · R1
Ottman AzaitarRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
Azaitar · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Francisco PradoRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Matt FrevolaRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · KO · R1
Khama WorthyRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · KO · R1
Teemu PackalenRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09