★ Championship Bout · Welterweight
UFC 46: Supernatural
Las Vegas, USA
31 Jan 2004
Welterweight
VS
49%
Penn
51%
Hughes
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:39
BP
BJ Penn
"The Prodigy"
16 – 14
5'9"70" reachOrthodox47 yrs7-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 22
MH
Matt Hughes
45 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide52 yrsSwitch73" reach5'9"
CFR 23

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hughes

This is a genuine toss-up — Penn at 49% vs Hughes at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Hughes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Penn's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hughes has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Penn
Hughes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+73"
47+
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Penn
Hughes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.2
23.0
56.9
Performance Avg
64.6
63
Quality of Victory
60
100
Momentum Score
100
Penn
Hughes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.3
51%
Strike Accuracy
56%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
6 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
3
2
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
2Clinch1
12Ground3
Penn
Hughes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Penn
Hughes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/30 fights
Chin rating based on
25/54 fights
Penn
Hughes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Penn
Hughes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
61%
6
KO / TKO Wins
6
4
Submission Wins
5
2
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Penn
Hughes
Striking6.0 / 4.8Volume1.6 / 3.7Grappling2.9 / 2.9Wrestling2.0 / 2.0Submission3.3 / 2.8Pressure7.3 / 6.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.8
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
1.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
Penn
Strike Zones
Hughes
Penn
Attacking
15HEAD2BODY0LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Hughes
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD2BODY0LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Penn targets the head (88% of attacks) — Hughes absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Hughes targets the head (75% of attacks) — Penn absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Penn
RND
Hughes
0/0R00/0

Penn · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.2W4.5W5.0W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.1W5.2W3.4L5.4W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L2.8L3.7L5.5L1.5L6.0L2001-052006-032009-122017-012019-05
WinLossTrend

Hughes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.5W4.0W1.5L5.1W5.4W5.4W4.0W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.2W2.1L4.5W2.1L2.8L4.5W5.5W5.0W1.5L1.5L1999-092003-042006-052010-042011-09
WinLossTrend

Penn · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · Sub · R1
Ryan HallRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · KO · R2
Yair RodriguezRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
L · KO · R3
Frankie EdgarRating 2.8
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · 2014-07

Hughes · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Josh KoscheckRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
L · KO · R1
BJ PennRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
W · Sub · R1
Ricardo AlmeidaRating 5
Submission
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · 2010-08
W · KO · R3
Renzo GracieRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
W · Dec · R3
Matt SerraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05

News & Media

BJ Penn · Matt Hughes
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