UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield
Las Vegas, USA
18 Feb 2023
Flyweight
VS
92%
Carpenter
8%
Ronderos
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:13
Clayton
Clayton Carpenter
8 – 3
5'6"66" reachOrthodox29 yrs3-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 53
JR
Juancamilo Ronderos
"100"
4 – 2
Well-Rounded2-fight slide31 yrsSouthpaw64" reach5'3"
CFR 5

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Carpenter

Carpenter is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 48 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Carpenter has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 52 points.

Striking split: Ronderos throws more volume but Carpenter connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Carpenter
Ronderos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'3"
66"+
Reach
64"
29+
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Carpenter
Ronderos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.6
4.6
47.0
Performance Avg
0.0
52
Quality of Victory
0
39
Momentum Score
0
Carpenter
Ronderos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.4
43%
Strike Accuracy
31%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Carpenter
Ronderos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.7
Sub Attempts / fight
—
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Carpenter
Ronderos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/11 fights
Chin rating based on
2/6 fights
Carpenter
Ronderos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Carpenter
Ronderos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Carpenter
Ronderos
Striking0.8 / 0.0Volume0.8 / 0.0Grappling8.0 / 0.0Wrestling5.6 / 0.0Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure8.2 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Carpenter
Strike Zones
Ronderos
Carpenter
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 absorbed
Ronderos
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Carpenter targets the head (67% of attacks) — Ronderos absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Ronderos targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Carpenter absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Carpenter
RND
Ronderos
0/0R00/0

Carpenter · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.0W5.4W6.6L2.6L6.4L2023-022024-102025-012025-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Ronderos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 1.9
0101.5L2.4L2021-052023-02
WinLossTrend

Carpenter · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jose OchoaRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Sub · R1
Jafel FilhoRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Tagir UlanbekovRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R2
Lucas RochaRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R1
Juancamilo RonderosRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02

Ronderos · Last 2

L · Sub · R1
Clayton CarpenterRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02
L · Sub · R1
David DvorakRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05

News & Media

Clayton Carpenter · Juancamilo Ronderos
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