UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
New York City, USA
16 Nov 2024
Women's Flyweight
VS
45%
Hardy
55%
Moura
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Veronica
Veronica Hardy
10 – 5
5'4"64" reachSouthpaw30 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 41
Eduarda
Eduarda Moura
"Ronda"
12 – 2
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'6"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Moura

This is a genuine toss-up — Hardy at 45% vs Moura at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Moura throws more volume but Hardy connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Hardy's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hardy
Moura
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'6"
64"
Reach
+67"
30+
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Hardy
Moura
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.4
51.1
38.5
Performance Avg
45.0
31
Quality of Victory
35
55
Momentum Score
64
Hardy
Moura
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.1
45%
Strike Accuracy
36%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
8
6
Body
1
9
Leg
0
RangeRange
21Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Hardy
Moura
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hardy
Moura
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/15 fights
Chin rating based on
5/14 fights
Hardy
Moura
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
64
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Hardy
Moura
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hardy
Moura
Striking1.0 / 4.5Volume7.4 / 6.5Grappling3.5 / 1.6Wrestling2.5 / 1.1Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure2.9 / 4.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
7.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
Hardy
Strike Zones
Moura
Hardy
Attacking
6HEAD6BODY9LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Moura
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD6BODY9LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hardy targets the legs (43% of attacks) — Moura absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Moura targets the head (89% of attacks) — Hardy absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hardy
RND
Moura
0/0R00/0

Hardy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.0L5.9L4.0L5.3W5.5L4.7W5.2W5.1W6.3L4.5W2016-092019-082023-122025-10
WinLossTrend

Moura · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.2W6.8L4.8W5.3W6.8L2023-112024-062024-112025-072026-02
WinLossTrend

Hardy · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Brogan WalkerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Eduarda MouraRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Jamey-Lyn HorthRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
W · Dec · R3
Juliana MillerRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

Moura · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Wang CongRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Lauren MurphyRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Veronica HardyRating 4.8
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Montserrat Conejo RuizRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11

News & Media

Veronica Hardy · Eduarda Moura
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