UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
Vancouver, Canada
10 Jun 2023
Lightweight
VS
54%
Oliveira
46%
Dariush
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:10
CFR 63
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Oliveira
This is a genuine toss-up — Oliveira at 54% vs Dariush at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Oliveira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Dariush throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Dariush has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Oliveira
Dariush
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
74"+
Reach
72"
36+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Oliveira
Dariush
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.3
54.9
58.6
Performance Avg
50.4
51
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
100
Oliveira
Dariush
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.7
53%
Strike Accuracy
51%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
8
3
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance6
3Clinch0
16Ground6
Oliveira
Dariush
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.6
4.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Dariush
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
7
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.1 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/48 fights
Chin rating based on
26/31 fights
Oliveira
Dariush
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Oliveira
Dariush
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
84%
47%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
17
Submission Wins
5
4
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Dariush
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.1
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
4.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
6.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
OliveiraDariush
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedDariush
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (88% of attacks) — Dariush absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Dariush targets the head (67% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Dariush
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Dariush · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Oliveira · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Dariush · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Quillan SalkilldRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Benoit Saint DenisRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Renato MoicanoRating 5.3Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Arman TsarukyanRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · KO · R1
Charles OliveiraRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06