UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Las Vegas, USA
6 Dec 2025
Featherweight
VS
44%
Naimov
56%
Santos
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:21
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Santos
This is a genuine toss-up — Naimov at 44% vs Santos at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Santos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Santos has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Naimov's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Naimov
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
70"
Reach
+72"
31
Age
+25
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Naimov
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.2
75.0
51.4
Performance Avg
70.0
38
Quality of Victory
50
96
Momentum Score
100
Naimov
Santos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.0
37%
Strike Accuracy
47%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
3
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Naimov
Santos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Naimov
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
100
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/17 fights
Chin rating based on
4/19 fights
Naimov
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
96
100
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Naimov
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Naimov
Santos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
NaimovSantos
Strike Zones
Naimov
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedSantos
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Naimov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the head (75% of attacks) — Naimov absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Naimov
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Naimov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Naimov · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Mairon SantosRating 6KO/TKO
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W · KO · R3
Muhammad NaimovRating 6.7KO/TKO
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