UFC 48: Payback
Las Vegas, USA
19 Jun 2004
Lightweight
VS
49%
Serra
51%
Menjivar
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MS
Matt Serra
"The Terra"
11 – 7
5'6"68" reachOrthodox51 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
IM
Ivan Menjivar
"The Pride of El Salvador"
25 – 12
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'6"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Menjivar

This is a genuine toss-up — Serra at 49% vs Menjivar at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Menjivar has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Serra's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Serra
Menjivar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
68"+
Reach
64"
51
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Serra
Menjivar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.2
19.2
53.3
Performance Avg
46.7
56
Quality of Victory
48
52
Momentum Score
64
Serra
Menjivar
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.1
37%
Strike Accuracy
38%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
3
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
1Clinch1
7Ground1
Serra
Menjivar
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.6
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Serra
Menjivar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
80
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/18 fights
Chin rating based on
9/37 fights
Serra
Menjivar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
64
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Serra
Menjivar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
75%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Serra
Menjivar
Striking3.9 / 3.4Volume5.6 / 2.9Grappling2.5 / 4.6Wrestling1.8 / 3.2Submission1.4 / 5.0Pressure4.5 / 6.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Serra
Strike Zones
Menjivar
Serra
Attacking
6HEAD3BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Menjivar
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD3BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Serra targets the head (67% of attacks) — Menjivar absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Menjivar targets the head (67% of attacks) — Serra absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Serra
RND
Menjivar
0/0R00/0

Serra · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.0L4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W2.1L5.5L5.0W5.5L2001-052003-022006-112010-022010-09
WinLossTrend

Menjivar · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.5L5.0W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.0W1.5L5.5L5.5L2004-062012-022013-022014-03
WinLossTrend

Serra · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Chris LytleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · KO · R1
Frank TriggRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · Dec · R3
Matt HughesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05
L · KO · R2
Georges St-PierreRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2 · 2008-04
W · KO · R1
Georges St-PierreRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 69: Shootout · 2007-04

Menjivar · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Hatsu HiokiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway · 2014-03
L · Dec · R3
Wilson ReisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · 2013-09
L · Sub · R1
Urijah FaberRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
W · Sub · R1
Azamat GashimovRating 5
Submission
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
L · Dec · R3
Mike EastonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07

News & Media

Matt Serra · Ivan Menjivar
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