UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
Nashville, USA
22 Apr 2017
Lightweight
VS
53%
Lauzon
47%
Ray
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lauzon
This is a genuine toss-up — Lauzon at 53% vs Ray at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Lauzon has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Ray has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lauzon's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ray has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lauzon
Ray
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
71"+
Reach
70"
42
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Lauzon
Ray
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
15.4
51.5
Performance Avg
46.0
49
Quality of Victory
34
59
Momentum Score
46
Lauzon
Ray
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.0
43%
Strike Accuracy
48%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
5 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
71
2
Body
6
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance43
0Clinch13
2Ground21
Lauzon
Ray
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lauzon
Ray
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/44 fights
Chin rating based on
11/32 fights
Lauzon
Ray
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
46
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Lauzon
Ray
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
29%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
7
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lauzon
Ray
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
LauzonRay
Strike Zones
Lauzon
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
77 absorbedRay
Attacking
77 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lauzon targets the head (87% of attacks) — Ray absorbs 87% of strikes there
🎯Ray targets the head (92% of attacks) — Lauzon absorbs 92% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lauzon
RND
Ray
0/0R00/0
Lauzon · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Ray · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Lauzon · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Jonathan PearceRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10
L · KO · R2
Chris GruetzemacherRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
L · KO · R1
Clay GuidaRating 2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Stevie RayRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Marcin HeldRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
Ray · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
L · KO · R1
Leonardo SantosRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Jessin AyariRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Kajan JohnsonRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
L · KO · R1
Paul FelderRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07