METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
11 May 2019
Light Heavyweight
VS
26%
Nogueira
74%
Spann
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:07
★ Official Result
Ryan SpannwinsKO/TKOR1 · 2:07
def. Rogerio Nogueira · UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Spann
→
Actual result
Spann wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Spann is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Nogueira's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Spann has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NogueiraSpann
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nogueira
Spann
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'5"
75"
Reach
+79"
50
Age
+35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nogueira
Spann
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.4
41.9
47.0
Performance Avg
53.3
48
Quality of Victory
50
20
Momentum Score
10
Nogueira
Spann
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.6
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
6.0
Style: Pressure
7.4
3.6
Style: Volume
2.8
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
11
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Nogueira
Spann
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
/ 10
3.7
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
0
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nogueira
Spann
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/33 fights
Chin rating based on
17/35 fights
Nogueira
Spann
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
10
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
Nogueira
Spann
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
80%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nogueira
Spann
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.2
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
NogueiraSpann
Strike Zones
Nogueira
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedSpann
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nogueira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Spann absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Spann targets the head (85% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 85% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nogueira
RND
Spann
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nogueira · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R1
Ryan SpannKO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · KO · R2
Sam AlveyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R3
Ryan BaderKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsKO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05
Spann · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Mario PintoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · 2026-09
W · KO · R2
Marcus BuchechaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Lukasz BrzeskiSubmission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Ovince Saint PreuxSubmission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10