UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
11 May 2019
Light Heavyweight
VS
25%
Nogueira
75%
Spann
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:07
RN
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
23 – 10
6'2"75" reachSouthpaw49 yrs2-fight slideStriker
CFR 14
Ryan
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
24 – 11
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak34 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'5"
CFR 43

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Spann

Spann is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Spann throws more volume but Nogueira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Nogueira's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Spann has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nogueira
Spann
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'5"
75"
Reach
+79"
49
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nogueira
Spann
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.4
43.3
47.0
Performance Avg
54.8
48
Quality of Victory
50
20
Momentum Score
10
Nogueira
Spann
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.8
42%
Strike Accuracy
40%
7.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
11
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Nogueira
Spann
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nogueira
Spann
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
8
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/33 fights
Chin rating based on
16/35 fights
Nogueira
Spann
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
10
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Nogueira
Spann
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
80%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nogueira
Spann
Striking7.6 / 5.3Volume3.6 / 2.9Grappling0.8 / 3.7Wrestling0.6 / 2.6Submission0.0 / 4.0Pressure6.0 / 7.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Nogueira
Strike Zones
Spann
Nogueira
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD1BODY1LEGS13 absorbed
Spann
Attacking
11HEAD1BODY1LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nogueira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Spann absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Spann targets the head (85% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 85% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nogueira
RND
Spann
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Nogueira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.0W2.8L5.2W1.9L5.5L2009-112011-122016-052020-07
WinLossTrend

Spann · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W5.0W5.2W4.5W2.3L5.0W2.7L5.3W6.0W2.7L6.7L4.8L5.6W4.3L5.0W5.2W2018-092020-092022-112024-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Nogueira · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R1
Ryan SpannRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R3
Ryan BaderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05

Spann · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Marcus BuchechaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Lukasz BrzeskiRating 5
Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 4.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 5.6
Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Bogdan GuskovRating 4.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04

News & Media

Rogerio Nogueira · Ryan Spann
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