UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez
Las Vegas, USA
27 Apr 2024
Heavyweight
VS
86%
Mayes
14%
Machado
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mayes
Mayes is a strong favourite at 86% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Mayes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 39 points.
Machado has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Mayes's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mayes
Machado
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'6"+
Height
6'4"
81"+
Reach
78"
34
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Mayes
Machado
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.2
6.8
37.8
Performance Avg
0.0
39
Quality of Victory
0
43
Momentum Score
0
Mayes
Machado
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.2
46%
Strike Accuracy
46%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
14
7
Body
12
2
Leg
6
RangeRange
21Distance31
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Mayes
Machado
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mayes
Machado
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
94
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/20 fights
Chin rating based on
3/12 fights
Mayes
Machado
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Mayes
Machado
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mayes
Machado
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
MayesMachado
Strike Zones
Mayes
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedMachado
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mayes targets the head (57% of attacks) — Machado absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Machado targets the head (44% of attacks) — Mayes absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mayes
RND
Machado
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Mayes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Machado · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Mayes · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Thomas PetersenRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Valter WalkerRating 3.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Shamil GazievRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Caio MachadoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · Dec · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
Machado · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Brendson RibeiroRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · Dec · R3
Mick ParkinRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11