METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez
Las Vegas, USA
27 Apr 2024
Heavyweight
VS
86%
Mayes
14%
Machado
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Don'Tale MayeswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Caio Machado · UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Mayes
→
Actual result
Mayes wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Mayes is a strong favourite at 86% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Mayes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 39 points.
Risk flags
Mayes's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MayesMachado
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Mayes
Machado
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'6"+
Height
6'4"
81"+
Reach
78"
34
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Mayes
Machado
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.2
6.8
37.8
Performance Avg
0.0
39
Quality of Victory
0
43
Momentum Score
0
Mayes
Machado
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
4.6
Style: Pressure
0.0
4.7
Style: Volume
0.0
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
14
7
Body
12
2
Leg
6
RangeRange
21Distance31
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Mayes
Machado
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mayes
Machado
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
94
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/20 fights
Chin rating based on
3/12 fights
Mayes
Machado
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Mayes
Machado
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mayes
Machado
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
MayesMachado
Strike Zones
Mayes
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedMachado
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mayes targets the head (57% of attacks) — Machado absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Machado targets the head (44% of attacks) — Mayes absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mayes
RND
Machado
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Mayes · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Thomas PetersenDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Valter WalkerSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Shamil GazievDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Caio MachadoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · Dec · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
Machado · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Brendson RibeiroDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · Dec · R3
Mick ParkinDecision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11