UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
Las Vegas, USA
22 Feb 2014
Bantamweight
VS
42%
Gibson
58%
Sterling
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sterling
This is a genuine toss-up — Gibson at 42% vs Sterling at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sterling has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gibson's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sterling has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gibson
Sterling
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
71"
Reach
71"
38
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gibson
Sterling
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.9
54.2
39.8
Performance Avg
54.2
46
Quality of Victory
38
25
Momentum Score
71
Gibson
Sterling
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.4
46%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
7
0
Body
2
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
0Distance2
1Clinch2
1Ground7
Gibson
Sterling
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.5
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.2
1
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gibson
Sterling
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
50
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/34 fights
Chin rating based on
23/31 fights
Gibson
Sterling
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
71
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Gibson
Sterling
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gibson
Sterling
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
GibsonSterling
Strike Zones
Gibson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedSterling
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gibson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Sterling targets the head (64% of attacks) — Gibson absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gibson
RND
Sterling
0/0R00/0
Gibson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Sterling · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Gibson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
AoriqilengRating 2.3KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalRating 5.5Decision
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