The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights Finale
Las Vegas, USA
5 Dec 2009
Heavyweight
VS
88%
Madsen
12%
Wren
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JM
Jon Madsen
8 – 2
6'0"72" reachOrthodox46 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 21
JW
Justin Wren
"The Viking"
13 – 2
Well-Rounded39 yrsOrthodox6'2"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Madsen

Madsen is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Madsen has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 34 points.

Madsen has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Madsen
Wren
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
72"
Reach
46
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Madsen
Wren
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.5
2.7
52.2
Performance Avg
0.0
34
Quality of Victory
0
84
Momentum Score
0
Madsen
Wren
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.7
37%
Strike Accuracy
16%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
2
2
Body
5
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
9Distance8
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Madsen
Wren
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Madsen
Wren
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/10 fights
Chin rating based on
1/15 fights
Madsen
Wren
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
0
L · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Madsen
Wren
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Madsen
Wren
Striking4.1 / 0.0Volume7.6 / 0.0Grappling1.8 / 0.0Wrestling1.3 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.2 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Madsen
Strike Zones
Wren
Madsen
Attacking
7HEAD2BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD5BODY3LEGS10 absorbed
Wren
Attacking
2HEAD5BODY3LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD2BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Madsen targets the head (78% of attacks) — Wren absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Wren targets the body (50% of attacks) — Madsen absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Madsen
RND
Wren
0/0R00/0

Madsen · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W4.8L2009-122010-042010-072010-102011-03
WinLossTrend

Madsen · Last 5

L · R2
Mike RussowRating 4.8
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · 2011-03
W · KO · R1
Gilbert YvelRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10
W · Dec · R3
Karlos VemolaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · Dec · R3
Mostapha Al-TurkRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
W · Dec · R3
Justin WrenRating 4.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights Finale · 2009-12

Wren · Last 1

L · Dec · R3
Jon MadsenRating 5.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights Finale · 2009-12

News & Media

Jon Madsen · Justin Wren
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