UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
Adelaide, Australia
9 May 2015
Lightweight
VS
76%
Matthews
24%
Vick
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:53
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Matthews
Matthews is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Vick throws more volume but Matthews connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Vick has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Matthews
Vick
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
+76"
31+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Matthews
Vick
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
17.7
48.3
Performance Avg
50.2
37
Quality of Victory
41
100
Momentum Score
71
Matthews
Vick
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.8
46%
Strike Accuracy
39%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
5
0
Body
2
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
4Distance8
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Matthews
Vick
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Matthews
Vick
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
10
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
14/18 fights
Matthews
Vick
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
71
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Matthews
Vick
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
56%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
6
Submission Wins
3
8
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Matthews
Vick
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
MatthewsVick
Strike Zones
Matthews
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedVick
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the head (100% of attacks) — Vick absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Vick targets the head (50% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Matthews
RND
Vick
0/0R00/0
Matthews · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Vick · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Matthews · Last 5
Upcoming
Muslim SalikhovUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Neil MagnyRating 4.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Chidi NjokuaniRating 6.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweRating 5.6Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Vick · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
L · KO · R1
Dan HookerRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Paul FelderRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · KO · R1
Justin GaethjeRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · Dec · R3
Francisco TrinaldoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02