METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
Adelaide, Australia
9 May 2015
Lightweight
VS
76%
Matthews
24%
Vick
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:53
★ Official Result
James VickwinsSubmissionR1 · 4:53
def. Jake Matthews · UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Matthews
→
Actual result
Vick wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Matthews is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Vick has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MatthewsVick
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Matthews
Vick
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
+76"
32+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Matthews
Vick
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.2
17.7
48.4
Performance Avg
50.2
36
Quality of Victory
41
100
Momentum Score
71
Matthews
Vick
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
5.1
Style: Pressure
5.8
5.3
Style: Volume
4.8
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
5
0
Body
2
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
4Distance8
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Matthews
Vick
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.2
/ 10
3.7
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
6
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Matthews
Vick
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
10
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
14/18 fights
Matthews
Vick
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
71
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Matthews
Vick
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
56%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
6
Submission Wins
3
9
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Matthews
Vick
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
MatthewsVick
Strike Zones
Matthews
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedVick
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the head (100% of attacks) — Vick absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Vick targets the head (50% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Matthews
RND
Vick
0/0R00/0
Matthews · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Carlston HarrisDecision
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L · Sub · R3
Neil MagnySubmission
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W · Sub · R1
Chidi NjokuaniSubmission
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W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweDecision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Vick · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Niko PriceKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
L · KO · R1
Dan HookerKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Paul FelderDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · KO · R1
Justin GaethjeKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · Dec · R3
Francisco TrinaldoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02