UFC 94: St-Pierre vs Penn 2
Las Vegas, USA
31 Jan 2009
Light Heavyweight
VS
43%
Machida
57%
Silva
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:59
LM
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
24 – 8
6'1"74" reachSouthpaw47 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 19
TS
Thiago Silva
19 – 6
Knockout Artist2-fight win streak43 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'2"
CFR 25

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Silva

This is a genuine toss-up — Machida at 43% vs Silva at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Silva throws more volume but Machida connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Machida's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Machida
Silva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
74"
47
Age
+43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Machida
Silva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
24.7
53.8
Performance Avg
60.6
45
Quality of Victory
54
78
Momentum Score
100
Machida
Silva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.5
54%
Strike Accuracy
54%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
1
4
Body
1
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance0
2Clinch2
12Ground0
Machida
Silva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.3
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Machida
Silva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
74
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/32 fights
Chin rating based on
12/25 fights
Machida
Silva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Machida
Silva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
86%
7
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Machida
Silva
Striking5.7 / 10.0Volume5.3 / 2.5Grappling1.7 / 0.3Wrestling1.2 / 0.2Submission0.6 / 0.0Pressure5.5 / 8.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.1
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
Machida
Strike Zones
Silva
Machida
Attacking
16HEAD4BODY4LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Silva
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD4BODY4LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Machida targets the head (67% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Silva targets the head (50% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Machida
RND
Silva
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Machida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W3.9L5.2W4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W6.3L5.0W2.1L2.8L1.8L5.3W5.2W2007-022009-052012-082014-122018-05
WinLossTrend

Silva · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W5.2W5.0W5.0W1.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W2007-052008-052010-012013-10
WinLossTrend

Machida · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04

Silva · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Matt HamillRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
W · KO · R1
Rafael CavalcanteRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06
Upcoming
Stanislav Nedkov
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · 2012-11
L · Dec · R3
Alexander GustafssonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · 2012-04
Upcoming
Brandon Vera
UFC 125: Resolution · 2011-01

News & Media

Lyoto Machida · Thiago Silva
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