UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
New York City, USA
3 Nov 2018
Featherweight
VS
81%
Arce
19%
Moraes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Arce
Arce is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Arce has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Striking split: Arce throws more volume but Moraes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Moraes has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Arce
Moraes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
70"
Reach
+72"
36
Age
+35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Arce
Moraes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.4
11.4
49.5
Performance Avg
31.0
43
Quality of Victory
25
65
Momentum Score
40
Arce
Moraes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.2
36%
Strike Accuracy
41%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
7
7
Body
5
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
17Distance7
1Clinch5
0Ground0
Arce
Moraes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.1
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Arce
Moraes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
64
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/25 fights
Chin rating based on
5/15 fights
Arce
Moraes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
40
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Arce
Moraes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Arce
Moraes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.2
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
ArceMoraes
Strike Zones
Arce
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedMoraes
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Arce targets the head (61% of attacks) — Moraes absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Moraes targets the head (58% of attacks) — Arce absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Arce
RND
Moraes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Arce · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Moraes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Arce · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Herbert BurnsRating 5.6KO/TKO
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Montel JacksonRating 6.4Decision
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UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
L · KO · R2
Song YadongRating 4.1KO/TKO
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W · KO · R2
Andre EwellRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
Moraes · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Andre FiliRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Sodiq YusuffRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Julio ArceRating 5.2Decision
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
W · Dec · R3
Matt SaylesRating 4.5Decision
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · 2018-08
L · Sub · R3
Zabit MagomedsharipovRating 4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum · 2017-11