METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Mexico City, Mexico
29 Mar 2025
Featherweight
VS
48%
Rodriguez
52%
Costa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Melquizael CostawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Christian Rodriguez · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Costa
→
Actual result
Costa wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Rodriguez at 48% vs Costa at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Costa has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RodriguezCosta
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Rodriguez
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
71"
28+
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Rodriguez
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.0
59.4
44.8
Performance Avg
53.2
35
Quality of Victory
42
90
Momentum Score
84
Rodriguez
Costa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
4.1
Style: Pressure
6.1
6.5
Style: Volume
4.8
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
13
6
Body
2
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
17Distance12
8Clinch2
9Ground3
Rodriguez
Costa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.9
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rodriguez
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
82
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/16 fights
Chin rating based on
10/34 fights
Rodriguez
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
84
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Rodriguez
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
57%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rodriguez
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
RodriguezCosta
Strike Zones
Rodriguez
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedCosta
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (74% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the head (76% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rodriguez
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
Rodriguez · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Hyder AmilSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Melquizael CostaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Austin BashiDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Sub · R1
Julian ErosaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
Costa · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Arnold AllenDecision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Dan IgeKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Morgan CharriereKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Julian ErosaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Christian RodriguezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03