UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Mexico City, Mexico
29 Mar 2025
Featherweight
VS
44%
Rodriguez
56%
Costa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Costa
This is a genuine toss-up — Rodriguez at 44% vs Costa at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Rodriguez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Costa has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rodriguez
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
71"
28+
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Rodriguez
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.2
59.4
40.7
Performance Avg
53.2
31
Quality of Victory
42
64
Momentum Score
84
Rodriguez
Costa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.4
51%
Strike Accuracy
47%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
13
6
Body
2
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
17Distance12
8Clinch2
9Ground3
Rodriguez
Costa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rodriguez
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
82
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/16 fights
Chin rating based on
10/34 fights
Rodriguez
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
84
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Rodriguez
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
57%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rodriguez
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
7.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
RodriguezCosta
Strike Zones
Rodriguez
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedCosta
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (74% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the head (76% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rodriguez
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
Rodriguez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Costa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Rodriguez · Last 5
Upcoming
Hyder AmilUFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Melquizael CostaRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Austin BashiRating 5.9Decision
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L · Sub · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
Costa · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Dan IgeRating 5.7KO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
Morgan CharriereRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Julian ErosaRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Christian RodriguezRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03