UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Kansas City, USA
15 Apr 2017
Flyweight
VS
42%
Smolka
58%
Elliott
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Elliott
This is a genuine toss-up — Smolka at 42% vs Elliott at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smolka has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Smolka has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Smolka's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Elliott has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Smolka
Elliott
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
68"+
Reach
66"
34+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Smolka
Elliott
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.6
36.8
46.5
Performance Avg
37.9
46
Quality of Victory
33
60
Momentum Score
43
Smolka
Elliott
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.4
51%
Strike Accuracy
44%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
13
1
Body
3
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
11Distance10
0Clinch2
3Ground7
Smolka
Elliott
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.1
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smolka
Elliott
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
26
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
22/36 fights
Smolka
Elliott
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Smolka
Elliott
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
30%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smolka
Elliott
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.1
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
SmolkaElliott
Strike Zones
Smolka
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedElliott
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smolka targets the head (79% of attacks) — Elliott absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Elliott targets the head (68% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 68% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smolka
RND
Elliott
0/0R00/0
Smolka · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Elliott · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Smolka · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8KO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesRating 1.5KO/TKO
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W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezRating 5.2KO/TKO
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L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneyRating 1.5Submission
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W · KO · R1
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Elliott · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1Decision
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W · Sub · R1
SumudaerjiRating 5.6Submission
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