METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Kansas City, USA
15 Apr 2017
Flyweight
VS
42%
Smolka
58%
Elliott
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Tim ElliottwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Louis Smolka · UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Elliott
→
Actual result
Elliott wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Smolka at 42% vs Elliott at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smolka has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Smolka has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Smolka's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Elliott has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SmolkaElliott
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Smolka
Elliott
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
68"+
Reach
66"
35+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Smolka
Elliott
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.6
36.8
46.5
Performance Avg
37.9
46
Quality of Victory
33
60
Momentum Score
43
Smolka
Elliott
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.2
1.4
51%
Strike Accuracy
44%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
13
1
Body
3
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
11Distance10
0Clinch2
3Ground7
Smolka
Elliott
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.1
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smolka
Elliott
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
26
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
22/36 fights
Smolka
Elliott
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Smolka
Elliott
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
30%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smolka
Elliott
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.1
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
SmolkaElliott
Strike Zones
Smolka
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedElliott
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smolka targets the head (79% of attacks) — Elliott absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Elliott targets the head (68% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 68% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smolka
RND
Elliott
0/0R00/0
Smolka · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Elliott · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Smolka · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneyRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
Elliott · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Sub · R2
Kai AsakuraRating 5.2Submission
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Sub · R1
SumudaerjiRating 5.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
Muhammad MokaevRating 5.4Submission
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Victor AltamiranoRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06