METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Kansas City, USA
15 Apr 2017
Flyweight
VS
42%
Smolka
58%
Elliott
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Tim ElliottwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Louis Smolka · UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Elliott
→
Actual result
Elliott wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Smolka at 42% vs Elliott at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smolka has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Smolka's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Elliott has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SmolkaElliott
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Smolka
Elliott
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
68"+
Reach
66"
35+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Smolka
Elliott
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.6
36.9
46.5
Performance Avg
38.0
46
Quality of Victory
33
60
Momentum Score
43
Smolka
Elliott
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.9
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
6.7
Style: Pressure
3.5
2.9
Style: Volume
6.5
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
13
1
Body
3
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
11Distance10
0Clinch2
3Ground7
Smolka
Elliott
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
/ 10
4.1
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
3.0
2
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Smolka
Elliott
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
26
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
23/36 fights
Smolka
Elliott
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
Smolka
Elliott
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
30%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smolka
Elliott
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.1
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
SmolkaElliott
Strike Zones
Smolka
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedElliott
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smolka targets the head (79% of attacks) — Elliott absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Elliott targets the head (68% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 68% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smolka
RND
Elliott
0/0R00/0
Smolka · Last 5
L · KO · R3
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Elliott · Last 5
Upcoming
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L · Dec · R3
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