UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
Atlanta, USA
21 Apr 2012
Heavyweight
VS
37%
Schaub
63%
Rothwell
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:10
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rothwell
Rothwell holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Schaub has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Schaub throws more volume but Rothwell connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Schaub's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rothwell has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Schaub
Rothwell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
78"
Reach
78"
43+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Schaub
Rothwell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
27.0
49.2
Performance Avg
49.7
46
Quality of Victory
48
39
Momentum Score
45
Schaub
Rothwell
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.5
39%
Strike Accuracy
46%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
6
0
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance5
2Clinch2
0Ground1
Schaub
Rothwell
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.1
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
1
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Schaub
Rothwell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
34
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/15 fights
Chin rating based on
17/53 fights
Schaub
Rothwell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Schaub
Rothwell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
78%
3
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Schaub
Rothwell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
SchaubRothwell
Strike Zones
Schaub
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedRothwell
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Schaub targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rothwell absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Rothwell targets the head (75% of attacks) — Schaub absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Schaub
RND
Rothwell
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Schaub · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Rothwell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Schaub · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Travis BrowneRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · 2014-12
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Sub · R1
Matt MitrioneRating 5Submission
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · 2013-09
W · Dec · R3
Lavar JohnsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
L · KO · R1
Ben RothwellRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · 2012-04
Rothwell · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1KO/TKO
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W · Sub · R2
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L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 5.9Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 5.1Decision
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W · KO · R2
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