UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Toronto, Canada
8 Dec 2018
Bantamweight
VS
75%
Katona
25%
Lopez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Brad
Brad Katona
"Superman"
16 – 5
5'6"64" reachOrthodox34 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 42
ML
Matthew Lopez
10 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight slide39 yrsSouthpaw69" reach5'7"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Katona

Katona is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Katona throws more volume but Lopez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Lopez has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Katona
Lopez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
64"
Reach
+69"
34+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Katona
Lopez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.2
13.7
44.0
Performance Avg
38.8
44
Quality of Victory
43
40
Momentum Score
33
Katona
Lopez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.5
51%
Strike Accuracy
60%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
9
3
Body
5
2
Leg
9
RangeRange
15Distance21
1Clinch1
0Ground1
Katona
Lopez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Katona
Lopez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
42
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
6/14 fights
Katona
Lopez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Katona
Lopez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Katona
Lopez
Striking0.9 / 5.7Volume8.9 / 4.7Grappling2.4 / 1.2Wrestling1.7 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.3 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
8.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Katona
Strike Zones
Lopez
Katona
Attacking
11HEAD3BODY2LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD5BODY9LEGS23 absorbed
Lopez
Attacking
9HEAD5BODY9LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD3BODY2LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Katona targets the head (69% of attacks) — Lopez absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Lopez targets the head (39% of attacks) — Katona absorbs 39% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Katona
RND
Lopez
0/0R00/0

Katona · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.5W4.5W6.8L5.5L4.7W5.6L4.5W6.4L2.6L2018-072019-092024-062025-05
WinLossTrend

Lopez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.4L4.5W5.0W4.0L2.8L5.9L2016-072016-122017-062017-112018-042018-12
WinLossTrend

Katona · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Bekzat AlmakhanRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Jean MatsumotoRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Jesse ButlerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Garrett ArmfieldRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Cody GibsonRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

Lopez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Brad KatonaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · KO · R2
Alejandro PerezRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
L · KO · R3
Raphael AssuncaoRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
W · KO · R1
Johnny EduardoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Mitch GagnonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12

News & Media

Brad Katona · Matthew Lopez
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