UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders
Belem, Brazil
3 Feb 2018
Middleweight
VS
27%
Machida
73%
Anders
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Anders
Anders is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Anders throws more volume but Machida connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Machida's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Anders has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Machida
Anders
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
74"
Reach
+75"
47
Age
+39
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Machida
Anders
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
50.9
53.8
Performance Avg
45.4
45
Quality of Victory
41
78
Momentum Score
79
Machida
Anders
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.7
54%
Strike Accuracy
53%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
4
8
Body
5
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
11Distance7
2Clinch2
0Ground0
Machida
Anders
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Machida
Anders
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
32
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/32 fights
Chin rating based on
20/27 fights
Machida
Anders
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
79
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Machida
Anders
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
7
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Machida
Anders
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
MachidaAnders
Strike Zones
Machida
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedAnders
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Machida targets the body (62% of attacks) — Anders absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Anders targets the body (56% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Machida
RND
Anders
0/0R00/0
Machida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Anders · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Machida · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
Anders · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Christian Leroy DuncanRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · KO · R2
Chris WeidmanRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Jamie PickettRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 5.5Decision
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06