UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
Las Vegas, USA
7 Jul 2016
Welterweight
VS
24%
Jouban
76%
Muhammad
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Muhammad
Muhammad is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jouban has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Jouban has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Jouban's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jouban
Muhammad
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
73"+
Reach
72"
44
Age
+37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Jouban
Muhammad
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
56.8
49.7
Performance Avg
48.5
42
Quality of Victory
31
67
Momentum Score
100
Jouban
Muhammad
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.8
1.4
51%
Strike Accuracy
45%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
54
10
Body
3
11
Leg
0
RangeRange
42Distance56
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Jouban
Muhammad
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jouban
Muhammad
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
19 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/24 fights
Chin rating based on
22/29 fights
Jouban
Muhammad
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
67
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Jouban
Muhammad
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
20%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jouban
Muhammad
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
JoubanMuhammad
Strike Zones
Jouban
Attacking
43 landedAbsorbing
57 absorbedMuhammad
Attacking
57 landedAbsorbing
43 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jouban targets the head (51% of attacks) — Muhammad absorbs 51% of strikes there
🎯Muhammad targets the head (95% of attacks) — Jouban absorbs 95% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jouban
RND
Muhammad
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R20/0
Jouban · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Muhammad · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Jouban · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Jared GoodenRating 5Decision
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11
L · Dec · R3
Dwight GrantRating 5.5Decision
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · 2019-04
W · KO · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Sub · R2
Gunnar NelsonRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03
Muhammad · Last 5
Upcoming
Gabriel BonfimUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 7Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05