UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
8 Jul 2023
Flyweight
VS
4%
Ross
96%
Aguilar
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:17
SR
Shannon Ross
"The Turkish Delight"
13 – 9
5'6"66" reachSwitch37 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 2
Jesus
Jesus Aguilar
12 – 4
Well-Rounded30 yrsOrthodox62" reach5'4"
CFR 52

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aguilar

Aguilar is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 50 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Aguilar has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 41 points.

Ross has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ross's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ross
Aguilar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'4"
66"+
Reach
62"
37
Age
+30
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Ross
Aguilar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.4
52.3
0.0
Performance Avg
47.5
0
Quality of Victory
41
0
Momentum Score
60
Ross
Aguilar
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.7
1.0
41%
Strike Accuracy
35%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Ross
Aguilar
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ross
Aguilar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
84
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/22 fights
Chin rating based on
8/16 fights
Ross
Aguilar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
60
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Ross
Aguilar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ross
Aguilar
Striking0.0 / 3.6Volume0.0 / 5.1Grappling0.0 / 3.2Wrestling0.0 / 2.2Submission0.0 / 2.5Pressure0.0 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Ross
Strike Zones
Aguilar
Ross
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Aguilar
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ross targets the head (50% of attacks) — Aguilar absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Aguilar targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ross absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ross
RND
Aguilar
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ross · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.0
0102.0L2.4L4.6L2023-022023-072023-12
WinLossTrend

Aguilar · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0103.2L5.0W4.5W5.0W6.1L4.5W6.1L2023-022024-022025-022026-03
WinLossTrend

Ross · Last 3

L · KO · R2
HyunSung ParkRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
L · KO · R1
Jesus AguilarRating 2.4
KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Kleydson RodriguesRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02

Aguilar · Last 5

Upcoming
Rei Tsuruya
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
SumudaerjiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Luis GuruleRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Rafael EstevamRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Sub · R1
Stewart NicollRating 5
Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

News & Media

Shannon Ross · Jesus Aguilar
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