UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Glendale, USA
14 Apr 2018
Bantamweight
VS
48%
Sanders
52%
Williams
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
LS
Luke Sanders
"Cool Hand"
13 – 5
5'6"67" reachSouthpaw40 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
PW
Patrick Williams
"The Animal"
8 – 6
Submission Hunter2-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'8"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Williams

This is a genuine toss-up — Sanders at 48% vs Williams at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Sanders throws more volume but Williams connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Sanders's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Williams has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Sanders
Williams
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'8"
67"
Reach
+73"
40+
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Sanders
Williams
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.5
17.0
41.8
Performance Avg
42.4
45
Quality of Victory
54
46
Momentum Score
43
Sanders
Williams
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.0
46%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
7
2
Body
2
0
Leg
13
RangeRange
16Distance21
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Sanders
Williams
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.5
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sanders
Williams
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/14 fights
Sanders
Williams
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Sanders
Williams
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sanders
Williams
Striking4.1 / 0.5Volume3.4 / 0.5Grappling3.5 / 8.0Wrestling2.4 / 5.6Submission3.3 / 10.0Pressure5.8 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Sanders
Strike Zones
Williams
Sanders
Attacking
15HEAD2BODY0LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD2BODY13LEGS22 absorbed
Williams
Attacking
7HEAD2BODY13LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD2BODY0LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sanders targets the head (88% of attacks) — Williams absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Williams targets the legs (59% of attacks) — Sanders absorbs 59% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sanders
RND
Williams
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Sanders · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0105.0W2.8L2.8L4.5W1.9L5.2W3.9L5.5L2016-012017-122018-082020-112021-05
WinLossTrend

Williams · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0102.8L5.0W2.8L5.5L2014-042015-062017-042018-04
WinLossTrend

Sanders · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Felipe ColaresRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · 2021-05
L · Sub · R2
Nate ManessRating 3.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
W · KO · R2
Renan BaraoRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · Sub · R1
Rani YahyaRating 1.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · Dec · R3
Patrick WilliamsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04

Williams · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Luke SandersRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
L · KO · R2
Tom DuquesnoyRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · Sub · R1
Alejandro PerezRating 5
Submission
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
L · KO · R2
Chris BealRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04

News & Media

Luke Sanders · Patrick Williams
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