METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
San Jose, USA
19 Nov 2011
Welterweight
VS
75%
Brown
25%
Baczynski
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 0:42
SB
CFR 14
★ Official Result
Seth BaczynskiwinsSubmissionR2 · 0:42
def. Matt Brown · UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Brown
→
Actual result
Baczynski wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Brown is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Brown has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Brown has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Brown's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Baczynski has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BrownBaczynski
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Brown
Baczynski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
75"
45
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brown
Baczynski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.5
14.3
54.0
Performance Avg
43.3
52
Quality of Victory
42
78
Momentum Score
33
Brown
Baczynski
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
1.5
60%
Strike Accuracy
31%
8.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
13 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
2
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Brown
Baczynski
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
1.2
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Brown
Baczynski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
28
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/45 fights
Chin rating based on
11/34 fights
Brown
Baczynski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
33
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Brown
Baczynski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
60%
13
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brown
Baczynski
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
1.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
BrownBaczynski
Strike Zones
Brown
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedBaczynski
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brown targets the body (50% of attacks) — Baczynski absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Baczynski targets the head (100% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brown
RND
Baczynski
0/0R00/0
Brown · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Baczynski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Brown · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Court McGeeRating 5.2KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
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W · KO · R2
Dhiego LimaRating 5.2KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
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L · KO · R2
Miguel BaezaRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
Baczynski · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Leon EdwardsRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Alan JoubanRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
L · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
L · KO · R1
Brian MelanconRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · 2013-07