UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Chicago, USA
16 Aug 2025
Welterweight
VS
41%
Neal
59%
Prates
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Prates
This is a genuine toss-up — Neal at 41% vs Prates at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Prates has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Prates has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Neal's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Neal
Prates
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
75"
Reach
+78"
35
Age
+32
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Neal
Prates
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.8
79.6
51.7
Performance Avg
70.6
48
Quality of Victory
59
72
Momentum Score
100
Neal
Prates
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
2.7
55%
Strike Accuracy
58%
7.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
17
4
Body
8
5
Leg
7
RangeRange
23Distance32
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Neal
Prates
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Neal
Prates
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
98
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/24 fights
Chin rating based on
8/31 fights
Neal
Prates
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Neal
Prates
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
7
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Neal
Prates
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.6
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.8
NealPrates
Strike Zones
Neal
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedPrates
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Neal targets the head (64% of attacks) — Prates absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Prates targets the head (53% of attacks) — Neal absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Neal
RND
Prates
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Neal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Prates · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.2WinLossTrend
Neal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Carlos PratesRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Sub · R3
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 6.1Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
Prates · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
Leon EdwardsRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Geoff NealRating 6KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Ian Machado GarryRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
W · KO · R1
Neil MagnyRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11