METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
Las Vegas, USA
2 Aug 2025
Lightweight
VS
45%
Rebecki
55%
Duncan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Chris DuncanwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Mateusz Rebecki · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Duncan
→
Actual result
Duncan wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Rebecki at 45% vs Duncan at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Rebecki's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RebeckiDuncan
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Rebecki
Duncan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
66"
Reach
+71"
33
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Rebecki
Duncan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.1
60.4
48.5
Performance Avg
53.2
44
Quality of Victory
39
50
Momentum Score
89
Rebecki
Duncan
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.1
/ 10
1.5
/ 10
5.9
Style: Pressure
5.8
4.3
Style: Volume
5.5
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
36
Head
40
6
Body
6
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
36Distance41
8Clinch7
0Ground0
Rebecki
Duncan
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
1
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rebecki
Duncan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
76
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/25 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Rebecki
Duncan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
89
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Rebecki
Duncan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rebecki
Duncan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.5
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
RebeckiDuncan
Strike Zones
Rebecki
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
48 absorbedDuncan
Attacking
48 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rebecki targets the head (82% of attacks) — Duncan absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Duncan targets the head (83% of attacks) — Rebecki absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rebecki
RND
Duncan
0/0R00/0
Rebecki · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Kyle PrepolecKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · 2026-08
L · Sub · R3
Grant DawsonSubmission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Ludovit KleinDecision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Chris DuncanDecision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Myktybek OrolbaiDecision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
Duncan · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Renato MoicanoSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Terrance McKinneySubmission
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Mateusz RebeckiDecision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Sub · R2
Jordan VucenicSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bolaji OkiSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09