UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
Las Vegas, USA
2 Aug 2025
Lightweight
VS
43%
Rebecki
57%
Duncan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Mateusz
Mateusz Rebecki
20 – 5
5'7"66" reachSouthpaw33 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 46
Chris
Chris Duncan
"The Problem"
15 – 3
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Duncan

This is a genuine toss-up — Rebecki at 43% vs Duncan at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Duncan throws more volume but Rebecki connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Rebecki's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rebecki
Duncan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
66"
Reach
+71"
33
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Rebecki
Duncan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.4
60.4
43.8
Performance Avg
53.2
40
Quality of Victory
39
50
Momentum Score
89
Rebecki
Duncan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.5
51%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
36
Head
40
6
Body
6
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
36Distance41
8Clinch7
0Ground0
Rebecki
Duncan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
1
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rebecki
Duncan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
76
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/25 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Rebecki
Duncan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
89
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Rebecki
Duncan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rebecki
Duncan
Striking3.5 / 1.5Volume5.0 / 5.5Grappling3.2 / 5.2Wrestling2.2 / 3.6Submission2.5 / 5.0Pressure5.0 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.5
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
Rebecki
Strike Zones
Duncan
Rebecki
Attacking
36HEAD6BODY2LEGS44 landed
Absorbing
40HEAD6BODY2LEGS48 absorbed
Duncan
Attacking
40HEAD6BODY2LEGS48 landed
Absorbing
36HEAD6BODY2LEGS44 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rebecki targets the head (82% of attacks) — Duncan absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Duncan targets the head (83% of attacks) — Rebecki absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rebecki
RND
Duncan
0/0R00/0

Rebecki · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0104.5W5.8W5.2W5.0L6.1W6.8L6.7L5.5L2023-012023-112024-102025-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Duncan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.4W3.6L5.0W5.2W5.1W6.5W2.9L2023-032024-022025-032025-122026-04
WinLossTrend

Rebecki · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
Grant DawsonRating 5.5
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Ludovit KleinRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Chris DuncanRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · KO · R3
Diego FerreiraRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05

Duncan · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Renato MoicanoRating 2.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 6.5
Submission
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Sub · R2
Jordan VucenicRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bolaji OkiRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09

News & Media

Mateusz Rebecki · Chris Duncan
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