UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Kansas City, USA
15 Apr 2017
Light Heavyweight
VS
52%
Clark
48%
Collier
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Devin
Devin Clark
"Brown Bear"
14 – 9
6'0"75" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 29
JC
Jake Collier
"The Prototype"
13 – 10
Well-Rounded4-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'3"
CFR 27

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Clark

This is a genuine toss-up — Clark at 52% vs Collier at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Collier throws more volume but Clark connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Clark's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Collier has a chin rating of 2 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Clark
Collier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+78"
36+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Clark
Collier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.7
26.7
35.7
Performance Avg
36.4
28
Quality of Victory
37
43
Momentum Score
45
Clark
Collier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.9
54%
Strike Accuracy
43%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
2
7
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
1Clinch1
30Ground1
Clark
Collier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Clark
Collier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
2
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/23 fights
Chin rating based on
14/23 fights
Clark
Collier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Clark
Collier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Clark
Collier
Striking2.2 / 2.7Volume7.9 / 5.5Grappling2.1 / 3.0Wrestling1.5 / 2.1Submission0.0 / 2.0Pressure2.3 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
2.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
Clark
Strike Zones
Collier
Clark
Attacking
24HEAD7BODY2LEGS33 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Collier
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD7BODY2LEGS33 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Clark targets the head (73% of attacks) — Collier absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Collier targets the head (67% of attacks) — Clark absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Clark
RND
Collier
0/0R00/0

Clark · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0101.5L4.5W4.5W3.3L4.5W1.6L4.5W3.2L4.5W5.4W2.7L5.8L5.5W5.9L5.1W4.0L5.9L2016-072018-122020-112023-052024-02
WinLossTrend

Collier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0101.5L4.5W2.8L5.2W5.5L4.5W3.9L4.5W5.5L5.0W6.2L3.8L6.5L6.5L2014-122017-042021-062023-042023-09
WinLossTrend

Clark · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Marcin PrachnioRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Sub · R2
Kennedy NzechukwuRating 4
Submission
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · Dec · R3
Da Woon JungRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · 2023-02
L · KO · R3
Azamat MurzakanovRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · 2022-08
W · KO · R3
William KnightRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · 2022-04

Collier · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mohammed UsmanRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
L · KO · R2
Chris BarnettRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
W · Sub · R1
Chase ShermanRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01

News & Media

Devin Clark · Jake Collier
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