UFC 103: Franklin vs Belfort
Dallas, USA
19 Sept 2009
Lightweight
VS
95%
Miller
5%
Lopez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:48
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Miller
Miller is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Miller has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.
Miller has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Miller's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Miller
Lopez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
42
Age
+41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Miller
Lopez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.5
2.1
51.5
Performance Avg
0.0
45
Quality of Victory
0
28
Momentum Score
0
Miller
Lopez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.2
41%
Strike Accuracy
20%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
1
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Miller
Lopez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Miller
Lopez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
47/58 fights
Chin rating based on
2/19 fights
Miller
Lopez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Miller
Lopez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
0%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
14
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Miller
Lopez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
MillerLopez
Strike Zones
Miller
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedLopez
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Miller targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Lopez absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Lopez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Miller
RND
Lopez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Miller · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Lopez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Miller · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jared GordonRating 5.4Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Chase HooperRating 6.3Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Damon JacksonRating 5.3Submission
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · Sub · R3
Gabriel BenitezRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Lopez · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Waylon LoweRating 5.5Decision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
L · KO · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 103: Franklin vs Belfort · 2009-09