UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
Las Vegas, USA
4 Mar 2017
Heavyweight
VS
71%
Tybura
29%
Henrique
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:46
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tybura
Tybura is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Henrique has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Tybura has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Tybura's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Henrique has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Tybura
Henrique
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'2"
78"+
Reach
74"
40
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tybura
Henrique
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.5
17.2
45.2
Performance Avg
41.7
37
Quality of Victory
47
58
Momentum Score
52
Tybura
Henrique
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.6
53%
Strike Accuracy
39%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
28
Head
2
2
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance0
7Clinch3
18Ground0
Tybura
Henrique
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tybura
Henrique
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/38 fights
Chin rating based on
6/15 fights
Tybura
Henrique
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
52
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R2
Tybura
Henrique
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
2
9
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tybura
Henrique
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
TyburaHenrique
Strike Zones
Tybura
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedHenrique
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tybura targets the head (93% of attacks) — Henrique absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Henrique targets the head (67% of attacks) — Tybura absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tybura
RND
Henrique
0/0R00/0
Tybura · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Henrique · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Tybura · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tyrell FortuneRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Ante DelijaRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Mick ParkinRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · R2
Jhonata DinizRating 5.1UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Sub · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
Henrique · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ryan SpannRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · Dec · R3
Arjan BhullarRating 5.5Decision
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
L · KO · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 4.4KO/TKO
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
W · Sub · R3
Christian ColomboRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · Sub · R2
Dmitrii SmoliakovRating 5.2Submission
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07