UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Las Vegas, USA
19 Sept 2020
Bantamweight
VS
41%
Newson
59%
Costa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:41
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Costa
This is a genuine toss-up — Newson at 41% vs Costa at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Costa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Newson's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Costa has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Newson
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'9"
67"
Reach
+73"
37
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Newson
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.3
24.9
23.0
Performance Avg
49.3
25
Quality of Victory
60
15
Momentum Score
13
Newson
Costa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
2.2
41%
Strike Accuracy
49%
0.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
4
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Newson
Costa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Newson
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
32
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/15 fights
Chin rating based on
6/10 fights
Newson
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
13
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Newson
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Newson
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
8.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
NewsonCosta
Strike Zones
Newson
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedCosta
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Newson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Newson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Newson
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Newson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Costa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Newson · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Marcus McGheeRating 4.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
L · Dec · R3
Sergey MorozovRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Fernie GarciaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Randy CostaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
Upcoming
Domingo PilarteUFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · 2020-02
Costa · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Guido CannettiRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
L · KO · R2
Tony KelleyRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
L · KO · R2
Adrian YanezRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
W · KO · R1
Journey NewsonRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
W · KO · R1
Boston SalmonRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10