UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
Denver, USA
11 Aug 2012
Featherweight
VS
24%
Lawrence
76%
Holloway
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:49
JL
Justin Lawrence
"The American Kidd"
10 – 4
5'8"67" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 17
Max
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
27 – 9
Well-Rounded34 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'11"
CFR 56

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Holloway

Holloway is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Holloway has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Lawrence's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Holloway has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Lawrence
Holloway
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
67"
Reach
+69"
36
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lawrence
Holloway
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.4
56.2
43.3
Performance Avg
56.8
50
Quality of Victory
47
43
Momentum Score
63
Lawrence
Holloway
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.2
37%
Strike Accuracy
52%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
12
2
Body
7
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
20Distance13
0Clinch0
0Ground6
Lawrence
Holloway
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.9
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lawrence
Holloway
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
52
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/14 fights
Chin rating based on
33/36 fights
Lawrence
Holloway
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
63
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Lawrence
Holloway
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
52%
1
KO / TKO Wins
10
0
Submission Wins
2
0
Decision Wins
11

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lawrence
Holloway
Striking10.0 / 5.8Volume0.7 / 4.9Grappling0.0 / 1.7Wrestling0.0 / 1.2Submission0.0 / 0.9Pressure8.0 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Lawrence
Strike Zones
Holloway
Lawrence
Attacking
15HEAD2BODY3LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD7BODY0LEGS19 absorbed
Holloway
Attacking
12HEAD7BODY0LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD2BODY3LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lawrence targets the head (75% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Holloway targets the head (63% of attacks) — Lawrence absorbs 63% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lawrence
RND
Holloway
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Lawrence · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0105.5W3.8L2.4L2012-062012-082013-04
WinLossTrend

Holloway · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0102.8L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L7.5L5.2W6.2W5.5W5.0W4.5W6.0W6.4W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.7W5.7W5.7W6.8L4.5W7.0L7.0L5.0W6.1W7.0L5.9W5.7W7.1W5.1L5.8W6.9L2012-022014-082017-062021-112026-03
WinLossTrend

Lawrence · Last 3

L · Sub · R1
Daniel PinedaRating 2.4
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale · 2013-04
L · KO · R2
Max HollowayRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08
W · KO · R3
John CoferRating 5.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · 2012-06

Holloway · Last 5

Upcoming
Conor McGregor
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1
KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

News & Media

Justin Lawrence · Max Holloway
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