UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Phoenix, USA
7 May 2022
Bantamweight
VS
77%
Newson
23%
Garcia
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Newson
Newson is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Newson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Newson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Newson's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Newson
Garcia
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'7"
67"
Reach
67"
37
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Newson
Garcia
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.3
5.2
23.0
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
15
Momentum Score
0
Newson
Garcia
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.7
41%
Strike Accuracy
28%
0.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
6
6
Body
2
5
Leg
4
RangeRange
18Distance12
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Newson
Garcia
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Newson
Garcia
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
72
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/15 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Newson
Garcia
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Newson
Garcia
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Newson
Garcia
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
NewsonGarcia
Strike Zones
Newson
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedGarcia
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Newson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Garcia targets the head (50% of attacks) — Newson absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Newson
RND
Garcia
0/0R00/0
Newson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Garcia · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Newson · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Marcus McGheeRating 4.4Submission
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UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05