UFC 77: Hostile Territory
Cincinnati, USA
20 Oct 2007
Middleweight
VS
61%
Belcher
39%
Starnes
Win Probability
AB
Alan Belcher
"The Talent"
18 – 8
6'2"75" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 22
KS
Kalib Starnes
17 – 11
Well-Rounded2-fight slide51 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'3"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Belcher

Belcher holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Starnes has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Belcher throws more volume but Starnes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Belcher's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Belcher
Starnes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
75"+
Reach
74"
42+
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Belcher
Starnes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.4
14.6
53.0
Performance Avg
39.7
48
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
33
Belcher
Starnes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.1
43%
Strike Accuracy
59%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
13
2
Body
1
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
15Distance13
4Clinch1
0Ground0
Belcher
Starnes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Belcher
Starnes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/26 fights
Chin rating based on
5/28 fights
Belcher
Starnes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
Belcher
Starnes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
78%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Belcher
Starnes
Striking5.6 / 0.8Volume2.1 / 4.8Grappling2.9 / 5.2Wrestling2.0 / 3.6Submission3.3 / 5.0Pressure7.2 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
7.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Belcher
Strike Zones
Starnes
Belcher
Attacking
13HEAD2BODY4LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD1BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Starnes
Attacking
13HEAD1BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD2BODY4LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Belcher targets the head (68% of attacks) — Starnes absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Starnes targets the head (93% of attacks) — Belcher absorbs 93% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Belcher
RND
Starnes
0/0R00/0

Belcher · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L5.5W2.8L5.0W4.2W1.5L4.7W5.2W5.5L5.0W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L2006-082007-102009-072012-052013-04
WinLossTrend

Starnes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W4.0L4.5W4.8L5.5L2006-062006-102007-052007-102008-04
WinLossTrend

Belcher · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Michael BispingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
L · Dec · R3
Yushin OkamiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
W · KO · R1
Rousimar PalharesRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05
W · KO · R1
Jason MacDonaldRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Sub · R2
Patrick CoteRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05

Starnes · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Nate QuarryRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2 · 2008-04
L · R2
Alan BelcherRating 4.8
UFC 77: Hostile Territory · 2007-10
W · Dec · R3
Chris LebenRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 71: Liddell vs Jackson · 2007-05
L · KO · R3
Yushin OkamiRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 64: Unstoppable · 2006-10
W · Sub · R1
Danny AbbadiRating 5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Ortiz vs. Team Shamrock Finale · 2006-06

News & Media

Alan Belcher · Kalib Starnes
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