UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
25 Oct 2014
Featherweight
VS
27%
Arantes
73%
Fili
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Fili
Fili is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Fili throws more volume but Arantes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Arantes's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Fili has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Arantes
Fili
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
73"
Reach
+74"
38
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Arantes
Fili
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.8
48.8
43.8
Performance Avg
42.0
43
Quality of Victory
35
64
Momentum Score
100
Arantes
Fili
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.4
47%
Strike Accuracy
37%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
5
0
Body
5
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance3
0Clinch3
4Ground5
Arantes
Fili
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Arantes
Fili
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/28 fights
Chin rating based on
26/38 fights
Arantes
Fili
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Arantes
Fili
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
31%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Arantes
Fili
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
ArantesFili
Strike Zones
Arantes
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedFili
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Arantes targets the head (88% of attacks) — Fili absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Fili targets the head (45% of attacks) — Arantes absorbs 45% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Arantes
RND
Fili
0/0R00/0
Arantes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Fili · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Arantes · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Song YadongRating 4.1KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Jose DelgadoRating 7Decision
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