METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka
Dublin, Ireland
24 Oct 2015
Middleweight
VS
13%
Bush
87%
McLellan
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:58
★ Official Result
Garreth McLellanwinsKO/TKOR3 · 4:58
def. Bubba Bush · UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McLellan
→
Actual result
McLellan wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
McLellan is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McLellan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 50 points.
Striking split: McLellan throws more volume but Bush connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
McLellan has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BushMcLellan
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Bush
McLellan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
Reach
72"
40+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Bush
McLellan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.2
14.3
0.0
Performance Avg
38.0
0
Quality of Victory
50
0
Momentum Score
20
Bush
McLellan
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.2
1.2
60%
Strike Accuracy
55%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
41
0
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground43
Bush
McLellan
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Bush
McLellan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
52
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/11 fights
Chin rating based on
5/19 fights
Bush
McLellan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
20
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Bush
McLellan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bush
McLellan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.4
BushMcLellan
Strike Zones
Bush
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedMcLellan
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bush targets the legs (100% of attacks) — McLellan absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯McLellan targets the head (93% of attacks) — Bush absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bush
RND
McLellan
0/0R00/0
McLellan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Bush · Last 2
L · KO · R3
Garreth McLellanRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10
Upcoming
Kevin CaseyUFC 175: Weidman vs Machida · 2014-07
McLellan · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Paulo CostaRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Alessio Di ChiricoRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
L · KO · R2
Magnus CedenbladRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · KO · R3
Bubba BushRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Bartosz FabinskiRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04