UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka
Dublin, Ireland
24 Oct 2015
Middleweight
VS
13%
Bush
87%
McLellan
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:58
BB
Bubba Bush
"The Fightin' Texas Aggie"
8 – 3
6'0"Orthodox40 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 2
GM
Garreth McLellan
"Soldier Boy"
13 – 6
Knockout Artist3-fight slide43 yrsSouthpaw72" reach6'1"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: McLellan

McLellan is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

McLellan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 50 points.

Striking split: McLellan throws more volume but Bush connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

McLellan has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Bush
McLellan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
Reach
72"
40+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Bush
McLellan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.2
14.3
0.0
Performance Avg
38.0
0
Quality of Victory
50
0
Momentum Score
20
Bush
McLellan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.2
1.2
60%
Strike Accuracy
55%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
41
0
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground43
Bush
McLellan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Bush
McLellan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
52
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/11 fights
Chin rating based on
5/19 fights
Bush
McLellan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
20
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Bush
McLellan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bush
McLellan
Striking0.0 / 10.0Volume0.0 / 0.4Grappling0.0 / 0.0Wrestling0.0 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.0 / 7.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.4
Bush
Strike Zones
McLellan
Bush
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
41HEAD3BODY0LEGS44 absorbed
McLellan
Attacking
41HEAD3BODY0LEGS44 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bush targets the legs (100% of attacks) — McLellan absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯McLellan targets the head (93% of attacks) — Bush absorbs 93% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bush
RND
McLellan
0/0R00/0

McLellan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.5L5.5W2.8L5.5L2.5L2015-042015-102016-052016-082017-03
WinLossTrend

Bush · Last 2

L · KO · R3
Garreth McLellanRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10
Upcoming
Kevin Casey
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida · 2014-07

McLellan · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Paulo CostaRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Alessio Di ChiricoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
L · KO · R2
Magnus CedenbladRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · KO · R3
Bubba BushRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Bartosz FabinskiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04

News & Media

Bubba Bush · Garreth McLellan
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